The Future of Drinking Isn’t Sobriety. It’s Optionality.

By Lexie Larsen, Co-Founder of Spiritless

For years, the beverage industry framed consumers in binary terms:

You either drank alcohol, or you didn’t.

You were “sober,” “sober curious,” or a drinker.

But after building a non-alcoholic spirits company inside this category for years, I can confidently say the future looks far more nuanced than that.

Most consumers are not making permanent identity shifts.

They’re making situational decisions.

And that distinction changes everything.

At Spiritless, we’ve watched consumers move away from rigid labels and toward flexible routines. The same person ordering a zero-proof cocktail on Tuesday may order a bourbon neat on Saturday. Someone training for a marathon may avoid alcohol for a month, then return socially on vacation. A new parent may moderate for sleep and productivity reasons without ever identifying as “non-drinking.”

That’s not contradiction.

That’s modern consumer behavior.

The non-alcoholic category isn’t growing because everyone suddenly stopped drinking. In fact, many consumers haven’t. The category is growing because people increasingly want control over how they feel, function, recover, sleep, socialize, and perform.

Consumers today are optimizing their lives in ways previous generations simply didn’t.

And alcohol is now part of that conversation.

According to IWSR, the U.S. non-alcoholic market is projected to approach $5 billion by 2028, while non-alcoholic spirits remain one of the fastest-growing segments within beverage. At the same time, broader alcohol participation still exists across nearly every demographic. That tells us something important:

This is not replacement behavior.

It’s expansion behavior.

Consumers are building larger beverage repertoires instead of abandoning existing ones entirely.

The implications for brands are massive.

For decades, beverage companies competed almost exclusively for “drinking occasions.” Now we’re competing for all occasions: weeknights, wellness routines, work events, recovery days, fitness goals, parenting seasons, social moderation, hospitality experiences, and moments where consumers simply want to participate without compromise.

The winners in this next era won’t be the brands that shame alcohol or moralize moderation.

They’ll be the brands that understand identity.

Because consumers still want ritual.
They still want sophistication.
They still want taste.
They still want the feeling of inclusion.

What they don’t always want is the alcohol itself.

That’s a very different consumer insight than the industry has historically operated under.

I also believe we’re still incredibly early.

The next phase of growth for non-alcoholic beverages will likely come less from novelty and more from normalization. Less from “Dry January” and more from Tuesday nights. Less from abstinence and more from routine integration.

The category matures when consumers stop viewing non-alcoholic options as a statement and start viewing them as standard.

And increasingly, that’s exactly what we’re seeing.

From major retailers expanding shelf space, to restaurants building dedicated zero-proof menus, to consumers becoming dramatically more ingredient-conscious, the cultural shift is undeniable.

The future of drinking is not necessarily less alcohol.

It’s more choice.

And ultimately, I think that’s a healthier, more sustainable, and more human direction for the industry as a whole.

— Lexie Larsen
Co-Founder,  Spiritless